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The formula
Implied probability (%) = 100 ÷ decimal odds
| Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| 1.25 | 80.00% |
| 1.80 | 55.56% |
| 2.50 | 40.00% |
| 4.00 | 25.00% |
| 10.00 | 10.00% |
Why implied probability is not the "true" chance
Bookmakers build a margin into their prices, so the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market add up to more than 100%. That means each implied probability is a little higher than the bookmaker's real estimate, and the odds are a little lower than "fair".
Example: Dynamos vs CAPS United at 2.50 / 3.10 / 2.90.
- 100 ÷ 2.50 = 40.00%
- 100 ÷ 3.10 = 32.26%
- 100 ÷ 2.90 = 34.48%
- Total = 106.74%, so the margin is about 6.74%.
Enter the three prices in the margin section of the calculator to check any market. Lower margins mean better prices for punters on average, but every market still favours the bookmaker. Read how bookmakers make money.
Using it sensibly
Implied probability helps you see what a price really means. A "big" price such as 6.00 is the bookmaker saying the outcome happens only about one time in six. It does not tell you whether a bet will win, and it is not advice to bet.